Most traders fail prop firm challenges because of position sizing, not strategy. This article walks through a realistic plan for a two-step $100k challenge on gold (XAUUSD), using our rule-based model and the published rules of a popular firm as a test case. Every figure is a hypothetical simulation, so treat it as a planning tool rather than a promise.
The rules you're really playing
| Rule (2-step, $100k) | Typical value |
|---|---|
| Phase 1 profit target | 8% |
| Phase 2 profit target | 5% |
| Maximum daily loss | 5% of the day's starting balance/equity |
| Maximum overall loss | 10% static |
| Funded account extras | No weekend holding, a cap per trade idea, warnings for large floating losses |
The targets aren't the hard part. The hard part is reaching them before a normal losing streak hits the 10% floor.
Risk per trade decides your odds
We replayed four years of trades 20,000 times in random order and measured how often each risk level passed Phase 1. The "half edge" column assumes live results are only half as good as the backtest, which is a sensible assumption.
| Risk per trade | Pass rate (backtest edge) | Pass rate (half edge) | Typical time to pass |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | ~100% | 94% | 4–6 months |
| 2% | 97% | 81% | 2–2.5 months |
Doubling risk roughly halves the time but raises the chance of failing Phase 1 from about 1 in 17 to about 1 in 5. Over both phases, that's close to 1 in 3 attempts failing at 2%.
The 2026 simulation, start to payout
Here's what happened in the simulation starting 1 January 2026 at 1% risk:
- Phase 1: passed on 29 Jan 2026 after 3 trades (+8.06%). Lowest equity −0.48%.
- Phase 2: passed on 02 Mar 2026 after 2 trades (+5.64%).
- Funded: 22 trades from March to September with weekend closes. Profit above $100k was withdrawn after every winning trade, paying the trader $6,774 at an 80% split.
2026 was a quick year to pass because it opened with three winning trades. Across all four years, expect Phase 1 to take a few months at 1% risk.
Funded-account rules that change the maths
- Weekend closes cut this model's long-run return by about a quarter, because some trades need more than a few days to reach target.
- Per-trade caps (for example 2% per trade idea) mean 2% risk is unsafe once spread and slippage are added. Stay at 1%.
- Floating-loss warnings at around 1.2% make anything above 1% risk a liability on funded accounts.
A simple plan
- Trade the evaluation at 1–1.5% risk. Don't raise size to hurry.
- Use 1% on the funded account and close before weekends.
- Withdraw on a schedule, not emotionally.
- Keep a log in R so you can compare live results with the backtest.
The full trade list for every stage is on our performance page.
Pass the challenge with position sizing. Keep the account with discipline.
Trade the tested model
Use the same rule set as live signals, an MT5 indicator or a fully automated MT5 EA.
Figures in this article are hypothetical backtest and simulation results. Trading involves substantial risk. This is educational content, not financial advice. See the risk disclosure.